![\"dal-e-rogue-wave-3\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/aleta.life\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/dal-e-rogue-wave-3.jpg?ssl=1\")
<\/a>Perhaps the greatest challenge for ocean-going seafarers is the convoluted nature of weather and waves. Wind, air pressure, temperature, currents, land masses, the gravitational pull of the moon and the contours of the seabed all mix in ways that confound simple rules of thumb. With so much complexity, even trans-Atlantic skippers fall back on sayings like, \u201cRed sky at night, sailor\u2019s delight. Red sky in the morning, sailor\u2019s warning.\u201d Thanks to new technology that is changing.<\/p>\nPredicting the behaviour of the world\u2019s oceans and making those predictions relevant to something only a few times larger than Aleta has been the goal of weather forecasters and shipping magnates for centuries. Today, just as in the past, the investment in oceanic forecasting is driven by commerce. Global climatology is interesting, just not as interesting as making sure all that oil and wheat gets where it\u2019s going. That\u2019s why NOAA<\/a> (America\u2019s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) falls under the Department of Commerce, not the Department of Climate Change*.<\/p>\n Throughout the 20th<\/sup> century our knowledge of weather patterns grew exponentially. The inventions of weather observation balloons, satellite imaging, airborne radar, and of course computers all played significant roles.<\/p>\n More recently satellite altimeters<\/a> and flotillas of buoys deployed around the world feed a constant stream of data about sea and weather conditions directly to supercomputers. The computers crunch the data and make predictions. Scientists review the predictions and, based on what actually happens, tweak the computer\u2019s algorithms in ways they hope will improve weather forecasting. All of which should improve the safe passage of goods. And, by proxy, Aleta.<\/p>\n Scientists now believe rogue waves<\/a> happen all the time. At least once a day. Somewhere around the world. Albeit randomly. And, like the sound of a tree falling in the forest, there may be just enough sensors around the world to tell us if these giant waves indeed make a sound when they crash forwards. (That\u2019s sounding, surely. \u2013 ed.)<\/em> There is even a definition for a rogue wave: a wave at least twice the height of a formation\u2019s \u201csignificant wave height<\/a>,\u201d or the mean of the largest one-third of a wave record.<\/p>\n Now that the threat of rogue waves has moved from the domain of superstition into the realm of data crunchers, and their threat is quantifiably big enough, the invisible hand of commerce is willing to throw wads of cash at making reliable predictive computer models of these elusive beasts.<\/p>\n Given all the complexity, meteorologists and climate scientists are turning to Artificial Intelligence (AI) for help. Dion H\u00e4fner and a couple of his closest friends gathered 1.4 billion<\/em> wave measurements and fed them into a neural network and applied some fancy math. Given AI’s superior pattern matching abilities, their model, \u201c\u2026reproduces known behavior, generates well-calibrated probabilities, and achieves better predictive scores on unseen data than current theory.\u201d You can read all about their findings here: Machine-guided Discovery of a Real-World Rogue Wave Model<\/a><\/p>\n More importantly, what might Aleta\u2019s skipper do about one? (Hint: \u201cNot a damn thing!\u201d and \u201cDrain the rum supply!\u201d are not the sort of actionable recommendations we have come to expect from this august journal. Although they will do in a pinch.)<\/em><\/p>\n If you are presented with a rogue that isn\u2019t named Bernie<\/a>, you will, in all likelihood, already be in your foul weather gear and dealing with the storm raging around you.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s a short checklist if a behemoth comes knocking:<\/p>\n Once the wave passes, go above decks and see how much of your rigging is left. Call your insurance broker and take another swig of rum. You deserve it.<\/p>\n This chap does a nice job explaining rogue waves:<\/p>\nData, Data, Data<\/h6>\n
Rogue Waves<\/h6>\n
<\/a>Now let\u2019s introduce rogue waves into this rough mix. Long considered the stuff of sailing folklore by landlubbers, a rogue wave is a massive, unpredicted wave capable of swallowing up even the biggest ships. Unlike tsunamis, rogue waves are not the result of earthquakes. They form by nature\u2019s strange alchemy, bringing together the forces of wind, currents, and other waves and building them into monsters. Proof of their existence finally occured in 1995 when an 85-foot wave crashed into the Draupner<\/a> oil platform off the coast of Norway. The event was scanned using a laser thingamajig which gave the observers all the credibility they needed.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nArtificial Intelligence to the Rescue<\/h6>\n
Action Stations!<\/h6>\n
<\/a>Cool! Knowing that a giant wall of water pops up daily someplace in the world is a start. But since the only identified point on Earth where rogue waves occur regularly is off South Africa, more work is needed.<\/p>\n\n
More<\/h6>\n
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